NRL Round 7
Free Game previews for Saturday, Round 7 - full details below.
Warriors v Titans @ Auckland
Rabbits v Dragons @ Homebush
Tigers v Broncos @ Campbelltown
My Line Picks
Eagles plus
Raiders plus
Dolphins plus
Titans plus
Dragons plus
Broncos plus
Roosters minus
Bulldogs minus
Game Tips
Eagles by 4
Raiders by 6
Panthers by 14
Warriors by 8
Rabbits by 12
Tigers by 6
Roosters by 12
Bulldogs by 18
Game Notes
Please note there are also individual message posts for each game that include the game notes plus Game Preview Sheet plus data market analysis sheet
Market positions noted at the time of publication
-11.5 Warriors v Titans | 49.5
The Warriors host the Titans at Go Media Stadium in Auckland on Saturday afternoon, and the possibility of wet weather adds a further complicating issue to what the data already identifies as a genuinely dangerous game for the home side — despite being installed as strong favourites at –11.5, the Warriors' cover rate when favourited at –10.0 or greater is a striking at just 38%.
The Titans have a great match-up here, having won six of the last eight H2H meetings and have won the last two at the ground when pronounced underdogs. Wet conditions here have historically suppressed scoring and reduced the effectiveness of structured attacking sets — which would suit the physical, direct style of both but could limit some of the Titans' ball shift and attacking flair.
The Warriors got the monkey off their back in Melbourne last week (first win in 17 HDH clashes) with a very physical offering. It's interesting to watch how they come up off that big mental and physical lift. The Titans will be buoyed as well off a near record-breaking 52-10 thumping of the Eels. Not sure if this is a 12-point line gap between them, but happy to watch and learn. With the Warriors to do enough to win.
If the weather were to clear and we saw reasonably dry conditions, I would be keen to be with the points over.
-12.5 Rabbits v Dragons | 52.5
The Rabbitohs return from Perth with a loss against the Raiders, and while they arrive back here as heavy favourites, I’m not convinced of the quality of their form at present and the roller coaster of in game inconsistency. They will now also have notable injury outs of David Fifita and Jye Gray — and they have lost their last 6 when without Gray.
The Dragons remain winless and 0-6 to start the season, and I am sure just a few weeks away from showing their coach the exit door, averaging just 14.4 points in their last five games and scoring a remarkable 0.6 second-half tries per game — a collapse so structural it defines their attitude and season. Their one hope here, should they have any sort of crack, is their consistent record when with this line position, a line covering record of 68% when given +10.0 or more start over their last 19 games.
Referee Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski adds a further twist — his 2026 current-season data shows consistently high-scoring games, which directly challenge the venue's historical under tendency, but is obviously in sync with the blowout nature of NRL manipulated touch footy ball in 2026.
The Rabbitohs should win comfortably, and Walker, Mitchell and Wighton have the class to get the job done without Fifita and Gray, but the –13.5 line makes it interesting. I harbour concerns that the majority of the Dragons playing group are now off the bus, and so even with such a good line cover record at this position and against a weakened opponent, they’ll concede too many through the second half.
With the Rabbitohs to have enough strike and game management to win, but zero confidence on any angle here to want to get involved. The key watch will be what the Dragons bring.
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-6.5 Tigers v Broncos | 51.5
Campbelltown Sports Stadium hosts what shapes as one of the most compelling home banker opportunities of the round, with the Tigers arriving off four wins from five to open their season in what is genuinely their best start in years — attack rank first in the competition, defence rank second, and now the addition of Jarome Luai at halfback transforming an already elite attacking unit into something even more threatening. The Broncos arrive in disarray, missing a range of key personnel, including Walsh and Carrigan — which compounds an already worsening trend of rising missed tackles, metres conceded climbing sharply.
The Tigers game strengths to date have been excellent, the key question is some of the form depth, but this now all presents and excellent challenge. Reynolds back will help the Broncos but they were opened up way too softly last week when conceding 35.
I think the 6.5 between them is too wide, and an inspired ex Tigers coach returning here in Maguire should lead to a motivated Broncos offering. But there is a lot to like about how the Tigers have been working hard, attitude is focused, defensive resolve sound and a preparedness to do something creative at times with the ball. Excellent test, but like the home team.
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